Stephen Mosher
More and more countries are hearing the death knell of low birth
rates.
We live in an age unique in human history. Per capita incomes
have never been higher, lifespans have never been longer, and people are better
fed and educated than ever before. At the same time, birth rates have fallen to
historically low levels. In fact, they have fallen to levels so low that they
will extinguish whole populations unless something is done.
The developed countries are suffering a severe birth dearth and,
as a result, an enormous shift in global power will soon be upon us. Europe
will recede demographically, while America will be hard-pressed to hold its own
against younger and more populous countries. More and more countries are
undertaking programs to raise their birth rates, although none of these
policies has as yet made much of a difference.
Let’s take a quick tour around the world, thanks to the research
of our own Elizabeth Crnkovich:
Asia
In Japan, the
headlines are increasingly strident: “The
Asian Tiger - Japan - is in Danger of Extinction,”
“Number of Children in Japan Falls for 31st Consecutive Year,”
“Japan’s Population Marks Sharpest Drop Since 1950,”
and “Japan Underpopulation So Bad Families Resort to “Rental
Relatives.” Even The
Economist, normally staid, has noted that “Japan is ageing faster than
any country in history.”
The bare facts are shocking enough: Japan’s fertility rate, at
1.1 children per woman, has never been lower, and it is still falling from year
to year. Japan already has the oldest population in the world and, with
virtually no immigration, there appears to be no way out of the looming
democide. The elderly will die, and there will be fewer people and far fewer
workers in the Home Islands in the years to come. The solution is obvious, but
the Japanese people have to want more children for there to be more children.
China’s lower birth rates have a different
cause. The Chinese people want more children, but the government for the past
three decades has said no. The one-child policy has decimated China’s younger
generations, and created a society where the young are not replacing the old.
While China currently has the world’s second largest economy, all
bets are off if
the birth rate remains depressed for another generation. The economy will follow the falling numbers of young workers
downward.
Taiwan’s birthrate is “dropping like a
stone...” says an editorial in the Taipei Times. The majority of
people realize there is a demographic problem. It could hardly be otherwise,
since the total fertility rate—the number of children per woman—is an anemic 0.9. Few are motivated to do anything
about it, however. Taiwan is now heavily urbanized, and city folk tend to have
very small families. When asked, younger Taiwanese say that they are not interested in
having children because they cost too much money, or take too much time. Women
are more motivated to get a college degree and seek professional employment
than to marry and have children. In this highly secularized society, children
are not seen not as a blessing, but as a burden tying down the women who bear
them. Goodbye, Taiwan.
Singapore,
whose fertility rate stands at an anemic 1.1, is a dying city-state. The
average Singaporean is now 39 years of age and climbing. While the city’s
economyappears
to be doing quite well, and the city itself is replete with new buildings, offers
top-notch health care, and enjoys low crime rates, its population is aging
fast. In order to keep everything running smoothly, Singapore must rely on immigration, the last resort of
a once-reproductive population.
Hong Kong has a birth-rate of 1.09, slightly
lower than that of Singapore. As a result, its government has reversed its
policy on family planning. Instead of promoting smaller families, as it once
did, the government now urges its citizens to
have more children to help offset population aging.
It may be a matter of “too little, too late,” however. People
already have ingrained in their heads that small families are better, or they
just don’t think they have the means to support bigger families. Governments
telling people to have more children is not going to change an anti-child
mentality at this point. One might call this a voluntary one-child policy.
To illustrate this point, consider that the South
Korean government
beginning in 2010 hasspent billions of dollars in an attempt to raise the country’s
birth rate. The jury is still out on this effort, but the latest total
fertility rate of 1.15 is still way below the replacement level. Seoul is
spending money that it hopes will make it easier for young couples to make ends
meet, and to support pregnant women. We at PRI are not sanguine that this
belated effort will make much of a difference, since the birth rate was so low
to begin with. The economy of this “Asian tiger” is hurting for lack of “cubs.”
Europe
The situation in Europe is no better. In Italy the dawn of the sexual revolution has
meant the death of the family. Young people are now not as eager to
start families, and the TFR is hovering at 1.4. Young people are happy living
the single life and only marry, if at all, after they have reached their
thirties and forties. Adult children see no shame in living in their parents’
homes well into middle age.
Venice, famous as a destination for honeymooners, is a dying
city. It is losing inhabitants and becoming more and more just a tourist attraction. The city even held
a mock funeralfor itself when its population dropped below 60,000. Will
holding a mock funeral boost the birth rate? It seems unlikely.
Another Catholic country with an anemic birth rate is Spain,
whose TFR is 1.48. The Spanish parliament reacted to the problem by promoting births and instituting
pro-natal policies. But the relatively small bonuses and benefits offered seem
insufficient to resurrect population growth. The problem is exacerbated by that
fact that many Spaniards, unable to find employment at home, seek it abroad in
countries such as Germany. When the young flee,
this hardly helps Spain’s declining birth rate anddecreasing population.
We’ve told you before about Russia, whose
women average 1.2 children. The nation is hemorrhaging people, a bleeding wound
which a huge baby bonus has
failed to staunch. The countryside is full of ghost villages as
the remaining Russians move to a few large cities.
Germany’s fix for falling fertility, now
standing at 1.4 children per woman, is to rely
on immigrants, immigrants drawn in by the strong German economy. Spaniards
and other Europeans help to bolster the German economy, to be sure, but that is
not going to help their native countries.
Other countries with very, very low birth rates include, but are
not limited to, England, Greece, Portugal, Holland, Belgium, and France. As the Telegraph put it: “We are not so much living
in an age of crisis as facing a crisis of age.”
Where is the population bomb when you need it?
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